2/18/2012

Poly prices

Did poly prices bottomed?  Or do we expect another leg down?

Current spot prices seem to have stabilized around $30/kg.  This caused a mini-rally in some solar stocks (until German tariff reduction news killed it).  However, some analysts (e.g. Citi) think another leg down is likely.  They estimate REC cash cost at FBR (newest) facility at around $13/kg based on latest data.  This is better than current cost and volume leader, GCL-Poly.  Latest GTM research suggests that panel prices in 2012 will drop from $0.90/w to $0.70/w, as lower poly prices work their way though the supply chain (80% of contracts are not spot, but will be renegotiated closer to spot).  They estimate poly cost of $20/kg and suggest that prices will head in that direction.  Biggest will survive: GCL Solar, REC, OCI, Tokuyama, Hemlock and Wacker.

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