Did poly prices bottomed? Or do we expect another leg down?
Current spot prices seem to have stabilized around $30/kg. This caused a mini-rally in some solar stocks (until German tariff reduction news killed it). However, some analysts (e.g. Citi) think another leg down is likely. They estimate REC cash cost at FBR (newest) facility at around $13/kg based on latest data. This is better than current cost and volume leader, GCL-Poly. Latest GTM research suggests that panel prices in 2012 will drop from $0.90/w to $0.70/w, as lower poly prices work their way though the supply chain (80% of contracts are not spot, but will be renegotiated closer to spot). They estimate poly cost of $20/kg and suggest that prices will head in that direction. Biggest will survive: GCL Solar, REC, OCI, Tokuyama, Hemlock and Wacker.
2/18/2012
1/10/2012
Ethanol subsidy gone... what's next?
Ethanol subsidy to refiners has expired. Tariff on imported ethanol also expired. The requirement to blend ethanol with gasoline remains. What does this mean to ethanol producers in the U.S.? Should we expect a spike in imported ethanol?
1/03/2012
Sovereign refinancing needs in 2012
Country 2012 Bond, Bill Redemptions ($) Coupon Payments Japan 3,000 billion 117 billion U.S. 2,783 billion 212 billion Italy 428 billion 72 billion France 367 billion 54 billion Germany 285 billion 45 billion Canada 221 billion 14 billion Brazil 169 billion 31 billion U.K. 165 billion 67 billion China 121 billion 41 billion India 57 billion 39 billion Russia 13 billion 9 billion
9/16/2011
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)