At the capex of about $10/gallon (yearly production), KiOR can build a large plant that converts wood waste ($70 per ton - market price) to crude oil. Their current yield is 67 gallon/ton - that translated to feedstock cost of about $1/gallon. Add to this opex (energy + personnel), let's say another $1/gallon, and you are left with about $1/gallon in operating profit (assuming $3/gallon ASP). So it takes about 10 years to get back your original investment - pretty thin margin considering technology risk.
But the technology is cool (if it works, first 800 barrels per day plant, at a cost of roughtly $200m, is to start production before the end of '12). By the way, this first plant (1/3 of size of full scale commercial plant) has capex of about $16/gallon.
6/27/2012
GTM Research on the future of solar pv industry
Supply cost curve for 2011 has First Solar as the lowest cost producer. However, by 2015, this is no longer the case:
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